Highlights
- Black Friday 2025 is projected to generate around $82 billion in U.S. sales, emphasizing its retail significance.
- Key trends include extended promotions, mobile commerce reliance, and the rise of Buy Now, Pay Later options.
- Technological innovations are reshaping retail with AI-driven personalization, enhancing supply chain management and customer experiences.
Summary and Background
Black Friday, originally the day after Thanksgiving in the U.S., has evolved into a global, multi-week retail event critical for holiday spending. By 2025, it is expected to generate about $82 billion in U.S. sales. The shopping season now features extended promotional periods like “Circle Week,” increased mobile commerce, and widespread use of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options. Influencer and affiliate marketing drive consumer engagement more effectively than traditional ads, while Connected TV (CTV) advertising is gaining prominence. Technological advances in AI and automation improve supply chain management, inventory forecasting, and payment security. Sustainability and nearshoring address environmental and operational concerns amid ongoing uncertainties. Consumers are increasingly cautious, valuing authentic savings.
Black Friday has shifted from a single-day event to a multi-week phenomenon, combining online research with in-store purchases and emphasizing price. Retailers integrate online and physical stores, offering flexible fulfillment like in-store pickup and home delivery. Supply chain challenges demand precise inventory forecasting across channels. Marketing strategies now focus on early and extended promotions supported by influencer partnerships to sustain engagement throughout the season.
Key Trends for 2025
Black Friday 2025 is marked by an extended shopping period starting earlier and lasting beyond the traditional weekend, with promotions such as Circle Week maintaining momentum. Mobile commerce dominates nearly half of online orders, though optimizing mobile shopping experiences remains crucial. BNPL is increasingly popular, with 42% of shoppers planning installment payments.
Influencer and affiliate marketing continue to outperform traditional campaigns, accounting for over 20% of Cyber Monday revenue. Retailers focus efforts on key social platforms for maximum impact. CTV gains traction as an effective channel for reaching high-intent shoppers, complementing omnichannel marketing.
AI and automation enhance supply chain forecasting, logistics, and payment security, with biometric and two-factor authentication becoming more common. Sustainability initiatives and nearshoring improve supply chain resilience amid geopolitical and economic challenges. Consumers exhibit cautious, value-driven spending, favoring early promotions, experiential gifts, and clear savings communication.
Retail Operations and Management
Retailers rely on advanced Merchandise Management Systems (MMS), Order Management Systems (OMS), and Business Intelligence (BI) tools to forecast demand and optimize inventory across channels. Extended sales periods require agile inventory management and unified platforms for real-time stock visibility. Seamless integration of online and in-store experiences, including flexible fulfillment options, caters to diverse consumer preferences.
AI supports personalized shopping tools and logistics optimization, with over half of consumers expected to use AI aids in 2025. Influencer marketing drives early engagement, with partnerships starting months in advance and user-generated content sustaining multi-channel touchpoints. Omnichannel strategies combining email, SMS, social media, and SEO maximize visibility and conversions. Data integration helps convert one-time buyers into repeat customers through chatbots and mobile-optimized checkout.
Retailers must navigate demand volatility and external uncertainties using predictive analytics and flexible operations to capitalize on a projected 5% sales increase in 2025.
Popular Products and Deals
Top gift categories for Black Friday 2025 include apparel (49%), toys (31%), and gift cards (27%), with food, personal care, and beauty products also popular. Electronics remain key, featuring discounts on TVs, laptops, smart home devices, and kitchen appliances from brands like KitchenAid, Ninja, Dyson, LG, and Samsung. New Apple products are expected highlights. Toys from brands such as Barbie, LEGO, and Hot Wheels will see notable deals. Big-ticket items dominate Black Friday, while Cyber Monday focuses more on digital deals like tech accessories and beauty bundles.
Bundling strategies are common, offering 15–20% savings on combined products to enhance value and clear inventory.
E-commerce and Competitive Landscape
Amazon dominates Black Friday online shopping, with its Cyber Week shopper share rising from 85% to 94% between 2024 and 2025. Walmart and Target remain key physical retailers, but Amazon leads online. About 45% of shoppers prefer online purchases, with 58% favoring Amazon over brand sites. Retailers must adopt data-driven, mobile-first strategies leveraging AI, influencer marketing, and real-time interactivity to compete.
Mobile commerce accounts for over 75% of Black Friday e-commerce sales, making mobile optimization and app engagement essential. Innovations in mobile payments and security, including 3D secure, improve transaction ease and customer expectations.
Consumer Behavior and Psychological Factors
Social proof heavily influences Black Friday shoppers, with influencer marketing converting at six times the rate of traditional social media campaigns. Millennials and Gen Z are the largest shopping groups, with distinct preferences shaping marketing approaches. Value-driven and cautious shopping dominates due to economic uncertainties, encouraging transparent and authentic messaging to maintain trust.
Consumers combine online research with in-store shopping, emphasizing convenience and peer validation. Omnichannel strategies that integrate these behaviors are critical to meet shopper expectations.
Future Outlook
Experts predict continued growth in Black Friday sales driven by strategic preparation, AI, automation, and sustainability efforts. Success depends on data-driven omnichannel approaches, effective inventory management, and seamless integration of online and in-store experiences. Early and sustained marketing through email, SMS, and social media, along with influencer partnerships, will be vital. Mobile commerce is expected to increase its share of Cyber Monday purchases, reflecting ongoing shifts in consumer behavior and technology use.
The content is provided by Sierra Knightley, Scopewires
